Since 2000 Australia’s self-sufficiency in oil has plummeted from 106% to now be around 50%, and unless we develop alternative sources for the fuels we need, it is forecast to be just 18% by 2030. (EnergyQuest).
Australia’s production of oil and condensate is forecast to decline from 183 million barrels in 2008 to 83 million barrels in 2030. At the same time as production is declining, Australia’s requirement for oil is forecast to grow from 341 million barrels in 2008 to 474 million barrels a year by 2030. The long term consequences for Australia of this growing gap between demand and supply could be very significant if action is not taken to address it in the very near future.
Currently Australia imports 158 million barrels of oil per annum and these oil imports cost Australia in the order of $13 billion. EnergyQuest forecasts that by 2030 Australia will need to import 335 million barrels of oil p.a. Economic forecaster ACIL Tasman has estimated the cost impact of importing such volumes to range between $92 billion and $128 billion in 2030 (in 2008 dollars).
This graph highlights the growing gap between Australia’s increasing use of oil, and our ability to be self sufficient in producing the oil we need.