The term ‘peak oil’ was first coined by U-S –physicist M. King Hubbert in1956. Mr Hubbert’s analysis was focused on oil production in the United States and has been the subject of much debate and conjecture in the ensuing decades, but the International Energy Agency has now announced that it regards 2006 as the date when the world reached ‘peak oil’. This comment relates to oil from conventional fields, and didn’t take into account the contribution which could be made through development of alternative fuels.
In 2011 the world was producing 84 million barrels of conventional oil per day, but the International Energy Agency is forecasting that figure to fall to 68 million barrels per day by 2035. At the same time demand for oil is increasing, and will continue to rise for decades to come. In its 2011 World Energy Outlook the International Energy Agency forecasts increasing demand for oil, from the current level of about 87 million barrels per day to 99 million barrels per day by 2035.
Oil will continue to be the dominant source of transport fuels, and despite some claims to the contrary, the IEA confirms that the age of fossil fuels is far from over, despite a slight drop in its contribution to world energy output. The IEA states: ‘’Demand for all fuels rises, but the share of fossil fuels in global primary energy consumption falls slightly from 81% in 2010 to 75% in 2035.’
What the world thinks of peak oil
If you Google the term Peak Oil you receive millions of references, and the subject of peak oil is one of the most discussed issues across most forms of media, including social media.
Naturally, viewpoints range on Peak oil, but there is little doubt that the issue is of increasing interest to governments, industries and individuals across the world.
In Great Britain a group of British companies has formed the UK Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil and Energy Security (ITPOES).
The UK Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil and Energy Security (ITPOES) is a group of British companies concerned that threats to energy security are not receiving the attention they merit. Concerned that threats to energy security are not receiving the attention they merit, the Taskforce aims to engage government more proactively on the peak oil threat, and also to alert the public to the problem.
The ITPOES web site states: “We aim to encourage collaborative contingency planning by government, industry, and communities on measures that can be taken to accelerate independent energy supply within the UK.”
In Germany, a study by German military think tank has analyzed how "peak oil" might change the global economy.
According to reports in German newspapers, the Bundeswehr (German military) report warned of shifts in the global balance of power, of the formation of new relationships based on interdependency, of a decline in importance of the western industrial nations, of the "total collapse of the markets" and of serious political and economic crises.